Planting miscanthus instead of row crops may increase the productivity and economic performance of farmed potholes

Climate change projections indicate that precipitation events in the central United States are expected to become more intense, frequent spring, and less summer. Such a shift could adversely impact crop yields, especially subfield areas known as farmed potholes, which highly susceptible flooding ponding, death is likely occur, particularly early growing season. This suggests planting alternative crops, such flood tolerant perennials, these may be profitable option. Using observations of growth yield along with ponding depth specific field pothole States, we developed spatially explicit version agroecosystem model Agro-IBIS estimate water yield. After evaluating model, conducted case study for range future scenarios simulate effects contemporary (2002–2016) on conventional corn/soybean (Zea mays L. Glycine max Merr.) rotation an perennial miscanthus (Miscanthus × giganteus Greef et Deu.) cropping system. The frequency increased under most scenarios. had greater total loss (i.e., no yield) average (>30%) all comparison (<10%). Under one scenario spring precipitation, both simulations showed increase A simple budget analysis indicated it plant instead corn or soybeans where yields potholes consistently poor. Our findings show can individually modeled, their influence quantified use management decisions dictated by climate.